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DE „"Nix G'wies woaß ma ned" (footnote: Bavarian for "You can't say for sure") – this is a common saying in Bavaria when it comes to making difficult decisions. Similar expressions likely exist in every language. The variety of formulations that articulate human uncertainty suggests that this is a very widespread condition, which of course doesn't stop at projects. But as a project insider, you're already aware of that. A good reason to get to the psychological bottom of it.
The major challenge with lucrative, and therefore usually complex, projects lies in the fact that many decisions have to be made under uncertain conditions. We rarely know what risks lurk and what opportunities arise. This is because we lack both the resources and the time to weigh all the pros and cons based on reliable information. And frankly, sometimes we simply don't feel like it.
What makes matters even more complicated is that, to make matters worse, our psyche plays tricks on us. We essentially have a kink in our mental perspective on the project. This kink, under psychological pressure, can become a breaking point for our sense of reality.
The problem isn't so much that competition forces us to take risks and deal with uncertainty. No risk, no deal! The crux of the matter is that humans generally tend to intuitively misjudge risks, opportunities, and even our ability to influence events, and are foolishly unaware of this. Psychological pressure, for example, triggered by fierce competition, increases the likelihood that we'll slip and slide on this intuitively slippery ice.
Here's a small selection from the repertoire of misconceptions our minds can conjure: perceptual distortions, the illusion of control, cause-and-effect myths, hindsight bias. And this is just a small selection, mind you.
The brain is the critical organ
In the following image, look at the darker circular fields, each surrounded first by larger and then by smaller circular fields. Which field in the center appears larger?
LOOK FIRST, THEN READ ON!
Image 1: Ebbinghaus illusion: Which dark area is larger?
An experiment with golfers showed that the probability of putting a golf ball depends on whether larger or smaller circles were projected around the hole, i.e., whether the hole was perceived as larger or smaller. In reality, of course, golf holes are exactly the same size. Where would we be if that weren't the case? It's, as you've probably guessed, an optical illusion.
Roger Bannister, not a golfer to my knowledge, but nonetheless the first person to run a mile in under four minutes, once aptly said: "The brain is the critical organ, not the heart or the lungs." And if our mind thinks something is harder or easier, even if that's objectively not true, then the rest of the body adjusts accordingly, whether it's golf, running, or whatever else you're doing. Applied to project work, this means: Whether we're problem-oriented or opportunity-oriented can play a significant role, because that influences our confidence and thus our probability of success.
The possibilities for influence are often misjudged.
People also tend to misjudge their ability to influence situations. Those who believe we consistently overestimate or underestimate it are mistaken. Our influence on highly random situations tends to be overestimated. For example, we intuitively overestimate our chances of winning the lottery. Conversely, we usually underestimate our influence on situations we could control relatively well if we fully utilized our abilities. Examples for many of us include singing, juggling, or tightrope walking.
Applied to the project, this means: On the one hand, we are too naive because we overestimate our influence on events during the project that are beyond our control. On the other hand, we lack justified confidence regarding our untapped potential.
Project myths are readily believed.
Successes are rarely officially commented on with the expression "lucky break." It's far more serious and credible to construct a plausible story that unequivocally demonstrates the brilliance of the project's heroes. Such things are often found in books with titles like "5 Steps to Project Success." Unlike Grimm's fairy tales, however, narrative elements like luck, chance, miracles, fairies, or magic are avoided. These don't fit the genre and would only fuel the genuinely justified doubts about the authors' grasp of reality. But woe betide the project if it fails. Then these know-it-alls, who supposedly were always skeptical, construct an equally plausible story of sheer amateurism.
From the perspective of the outcome, the supposed cause-and-effect relationships can usually be constructed relatively easily. In hindsight, everyone is wiser, and those who didn't dare to take the risk and seize an opportunity are the wisest of all. The tragedy lies in the fact that these cause-and-effect fairy tales are believed because they are plausible and therefore understandable, not because they explain the real connections. The complexity of reality usually overwhelms our ability to represent it. Unfortunately, in hindsight, we are not as clever as we feel.
Uncertainty is what makes decisions necessary.
So how do we deal with these insights? I think the examples mentioned above show that we cannot assume we realistically assess opportunities, risks, and our ability to influence events. Despite this distortion in our mental perspective, we very often have to make decisions without knowing the whole objective truth.
That's the whole point of making a decision: if the situation were clear-cut, there would be nothing to decide. So we can't escape the possibility of mistakes, errors, and risks. However, it's important that we're aware of the tricks our minds play on us, so we can counteract them.
Here are a few examples of simple measures: If there's a chance to gather helpful figures, data, and facts, we do so—and with a sense of proportion. If figures, data, and facts are available, we analyze them seriously, thus complementing intuition with reason. We refrain from retrospective know-it-all attitudes and no longer believe simplistic cause-and-effect narratives (not even our own). Instead, fully aware that these can only be attempts at explanation, we try to determine what might be promising. And if it still doesn't work, we use what we've learned to come up with something new. If it then works, we may not know if the explanation is more realistic, but at least it seems to help. A good mix of optimism and humility is called for here.
Image 2: Our mental optics influence our view of the projects.
(Image: foto art Elisabeth Wiesner)
I welcome your comments. If you'd like to learn more about the whimsical repertoire of our psyche, please send me an email with the subject line "Project Optics" to denkanstoss@microconsult.de.
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Food for thought:
Column by Peter Siwon about the human side of project work
Peter Siwon: Systemic project management
